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The challenge

Food systems are changing

Continued economic development and population growth threaten our environment, and our ability to maintain, let alone improve human wellbeing into the future. The need to find more sustainable development solutions will be critical as the pressure to produce more food and fibre is challenged by a changing climate and natural weather variability. Changing consumer preferences and trade regulations will shape and create new markets for Australian agriculture.

To be able to best adapt to these changes and utilise them as growth opportunities, we are using foresight analysis to better understand potential future trends in the global agriculture and food systems. It allows us to assess underlying drivers, potential implications and the challenges and opportunities the changes might present for Australian agriculture and related policies and programs.

Foresight analysis requires highly sophisticated global economic models, capable of effectively simulating both the global economic context and Australian agricultural commodities. Existing models, mostly designed and managed in Europe, often overlook sectors and trading partners that are relevant to Australia.

Our response

Modelling future impacts

To improve our foresight capability, we are building on previous modelling expertise to further develop and integrate foresight modelling tools in a coordinated way.

We are assessing the implications of a range of scenarios and how they will impact Australian agriculture producers and the wider economy, as well as the environment and public health.

This project is a collaboration between Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) and CSIRO.

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